BTC price · live chart & 30-second projection
Orange: observed trade prices · Blue dashed: unvalidated projection · Shaded: next 30 seconds. Chart motion is visual only; data is not smoothed.Forecast diagnostics
| Momentum · 15s | — |
| Trade imbalance · 30s | — |
| Realized volatility | — |
| Model output | — |
| 30s mean absolute error | — |
| Feed | — |
A new forecast is created every 3 seconds when enough live trade data exists. No confidence percentage is shown until a probability model is calibrated.
Kalshi · Current 15-minute BTC contract
Checking public Kalshi market data…
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Contract target / strike Not verified · Quote last updated —
YES/NO quotes are market prices, not forecast probabilities. An unavailable bid or ask displays —. Kalshi contract settlement uses its specified benchmark, not Binance.US trades. Do not substitute the live exchange price for the settlement index.
Open Bitcoin 15-minute markets on Kalshi ↗Kalshi 15-minute contract watch
Enter the exact threshold shown on your Kalshi contract and start the timer at the contract's actual beginning. Timer is a manual convenience only; it does not verify Kalshi's market close or settlement time.
This shows the current exchange price versus your entered threshold. It is not a forecast of the 15-minute contract outcome, nor a fair Kalshi YES/NO probability.
Recent 30-second forecast outcomes
| Forecast made | Predicted | Actual +30s | Error |
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Results reset on reload. Missing/stale trade data must not be interpreted as a prediction. No model confidence has been calibrated.
15-minute model performance
Cloud forecasts · version comparison · historical evaluationConnect your cloud collector to load 15-minute research statistics. Browser 30-second outcomes are tracked separately.
| Model version | Evaluated | Pending | Direction accuracy | Mean absolute error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| No model results loaded | ||||
15-minute model statistics are not Kalshi settlement accuracy or proof of positive expected value. Version comparisons need adequate evaluated sample sizes. No trading signals are generated.
24/7 cloud collector (optional)
This panel reads an independently hosted collector. It does not keep running just because the website is open. No Kalshi trading access.
Not configured — existing live browser feed remains available.
Accuracy excludes ties from the directional-hit numerator. Results are descriptive, not proof of profitable Kalshi predictions.